Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
