A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
